HSE Mid West had significantly more patients on trolleys than any other region, 8.1 per 10,000 people a week

HSE Mid West had a level of 8.1 patients on trolleys per 10,000 people a week (95% credible interval 7.4 to 8.8). That is 1.6 more than HSE West and North West, the next highest (95% credible interval 0.7 to 2.5 more). Every region dropped in the week that contains 25 December. The drop ran from 2.3 per 10,000 in HSE Dublin and North East to 5.4 per 10,000 in HSE Mid West.

Methods. Data are daily counts of patients on emergency department and ward trolleys from the HSE Urgent and Emergency Care daily report, 1 January 2023 to 5 April 2026, summed into Monday-start weeks for each region and divided by regional population per 10,000 people. The estimates come from model v4.6 of Henry and Bergin (2026): each region has its own level, a yearly cycle, four New Year phase effects, a Mid West operational reset in August 2024, and dependence on the previous two weeks. It was fitted in JAGS with 4 chains of 30,000 iterations, the first 10,000 dropped, giving 80,000 draws. Values are posterior medians. The 95% credible interval runs from the 2.5th to the 97.5th percentile of the draws. Significantly means the 95% credible interval of a difference between two regions excludes zero. A probability is the share of the 80,000 draws in which the statement holds. The seasonal swing is how far the yearly cycle rises above the level at its peak. Winter follows Met Éireann (2026) and the thesis: 1 December to the end of February. The winter excess is the region's yearly cycle averaged over study weeks starting in December to February, minus its average over the other study weeks, computed in every draw. It uses the yearly cycle only, not the New Year phases. The four phases are the week two weeks before the week containing 1 January, the week before it, which contains 25 December, the week containing 1 January, and the week after it. Each phase effect is the change from the baseline average in that week, and the same effect applies every winter. The yearly peak is the date where the fitted yearly cycle is highest, found in each draw from its sine and cosine terms. The probability of a winter peak is the share of draws with that date from 1 December to the end of February. The peak's 95% credible interval is the shortest stretch of the calendar that holds 95% of the draws. Region boundaries were simplified for display.

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